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Sullivan Co. posts residential building permit increase for Q4
By Don Fenley
While residential building permits in most of the Tri-Cities region declined during the 4th quarter of 2009 they were up 14.3 percent in Sullivan County.

<a href="http://www.tcigroup.com/" target="_blank">TCI Group </a> General Manager and Principal Broker Jerry Petzoldt said the increase came from "the building of custom homes."
He said people are taking advantage of low interest rates, soft building costs and an abundance of construction labor eager to have work.

Washingotn County, Tenn. had more residential permits than Sullivan during the period, but the number was less than the county's third quarter permit total.

According to <a href="http://www.themarketedge.com/Markets.aspx" target="_blank">The Market Edge's </a> 2009 annual report, 80 residential building permits were issued in Sullivan County during the fourth quarter of 2009 - 10 more than during third quarter. And it was a 41.25 percent increase over number of permits issued in the fourth quarter of 2008.

During 2008 a total of 272 residential permits were issued in Sullivan County. That was 28 percent below the 2008 total.

The fourth quarter report wasn't as encouraging in the other Tri-Cities area counties:

- Hawkins Co. was down 25 percent.

- Greene Co. down 29.7 percent.

- Washington County, Tenn. down 4 percent

- Carter Co. down 13 percent.

- Scott Co. Va., down 60 percent.

- Washington Co,, Va down 22.2 percent.

The Tri-Cities region's total was down 8.5 percent.
However, even the fourth quarter declines were improvements over the number of permits issued in Carter, Washington Co. Tenn.. and Washington Co. Va. during the same period in 2008.

During 2009 the total number of residential building permits for the Tri-Cities region was down 36.4 percent from 2008 total of 1,477.

Dale Atkins, president of the Marketing Edge, said permit volume in most of region he monitors bottomed out in the first quarter of 2009, showed improvement during the second and third quarters, then declined in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter drop was anticipated due to the holidays season and weather.

Atkins wrote that the interesting trend post is that more residential permits were issued in the last half of 2009 than during the first six months of the year.

"This may not seem like news until you consider that since 2005, a range of 53 to 62 percent of all building permits were issued during the first half of the year."

Atkins say he hopes that means the first quarter of 2009 was the bottom of the residential building slump and that positive trends will continue into 2010.

According to Atkins' report 238 residential building permits were issued in the Tri-Cities region duirng the fourth quarter of 2009. Here's what the breakdown of the fourth quarter and annual number of permits county looks like:

- Carter Co. - 20 - 97.

- Greene Co. - 12 - 92.

- Hawkins Co. - 3 - 16.

- Sullivan Co. 80 - 272.

- Washington Co. 95 - 331.

- Scott Co. Va. - 4. - 28.

- Washington Co. Va. - 24 - 103.
Story comments - a freak show or the new Speaker's Corner
By Don Fenley
The Wild West world of timesnews.net story comments is a land where opinions frequently masquerade as facts and modern-day trolls lurk to bait arguments or hijack threads. It's also the cyberspace version of <a href="http://www.offtolondon.com/hyde_speak.html" target="_blank"> Speaker's Corner </a> where the endless back-and-forth of the Culture Wars, political sniping and passing judgment on accused criminals or their victims thrives.

I would be remiss if I didn't add that every now and then there's a comment that adds an important fact to a news story, or something that a reporter might suspect but can't source.

Everyone knows what story comments are, but no one can figure the forums out. But even those who are most critical about the comments and liken the forum to a "freak show" always seem to be up-to-date about what is being said.

Love it or hate it - and there are many in both camps - story comments and similar forums have become a staple of the online world. And - in some ways - this often rancorous, snarky world or whatever it is at any given minute has become one of the 21st Century gathering places for those who want to be heard but not seen. Increasingly it is becoming the place where political traps are set and trial balloons are floated. It's where your boss, your neighbor, your pastor, elected officials and the victims or perpetrators of crimes are dragged to cyberspace's court of public opinion and dealt with.

Those who watch to broader implications continue to argue about when or if this type forum will reach the tipping point. I think that's why a couple of blogs that I've done as updates of this element of New Media <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7275" target="_blank"> Story comments: Sound off, shut up or ID yourself?</a> or <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7474" target="_blank"> Trashy blog, hot gossip gets legal push back</a> have attracted better-than-average reader traffic.

But, like many things in New Media, there's no consensus yet, so the only guarantee is more of the same.

Here are the 10 items that attracted the most comments during 2009. Some of the give-and-take is still going on although the story or letter to the editor that launched these debates are long past current status.

1 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9014007" target="_blank"> Homosexuality violates God's law </a>.


2 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9016920"target="_blank"> ACLU questions Gate City High about prayer before football game </a>.


3 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9015947"target="_blank">Fort Henry Drive wreck claims life of Dungannon man </a>


4 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9015016" target="_blank"> Christian nation </a>


5 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9015777" target="_blank"> Kingsport neighbor who shot burglar suspect could face assault charge.</a>


6 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9014094" target="_blank"> Homosexuals are entitled to civil rights </a>


7 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9017289" target="_blank"> Gate City students hope to send message about prayer in response to ACLU. </a>


8 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9015822" target="_blank"> Kingsport burglary suspect back in critical condition, new charges pending. </a>


9 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9012022" target="_blank"> Kingsport business owner, son arrested in drug bust </a>.


10 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9012928" target="_blank"> Impact of Iowa gay marriage ruling debated by both sides in Tenn. </a>
Lies, damn lies and politics as usual
By Don Fenley
Love it or hate it FactCheck.org has become as much a staple in the American political scene as the national media's pundits and conservative talk radio.

And like everything else in politics, it has a love-hate ratio with readers that depends on which side is getting skewed at any given point in time.

As we draw toward the end of the year and into a new decade FactCheck has trotted out its <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2009/12/whoppers-of-2009/" target="_blank">Whoppers of 2009 </a>.

The most egregious from the left focused on President Obama:

- The first <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2009/09/sweet-another-stretch-by-obama/" target="_blank"> Sweet: Another Stretch by Obama</a> took aim at the president claiming that an insurance company was responsible for the death of an Illinois cancer patient.

- Next up was Obama's <a href-"http://www.factcheck.org/2009/02/fact-checking-obamas-speech/" target="_blank">Double Exaggeration </a> when he claimed health care "causes a bankruptcy in America every 30 seconds."

- And then there was the <a href="http://factcheck.org/2009/06/obamas-health-care-claims/" target="_blank"> Puffed-up Premiums</a> when President Obama claimed that the average American family is paying a thousand dollars for uncompensated care for the uninsured.

- The final Obama whopper focused on Obama's <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2009/08/seven-falsehoods-about-health-care/"> Saving $2,500 </a> on health care claim.

FactCheck's look at the year's biggest whoppers from the right included one more item than from the left. That will probably be cited as proof that the forum is not fair and balanced.

Top on the list was the <a href="http://factcheck.org/2009/07/false-euthanasia-claims/" target="_blank"> Death Panels</a> or 'pulling the plug on grandma." It was started by former New York lieutenant governor Betsy McCaughey and ridden into another point of fame by Sarah Palin.

<a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2009/04/government-run-health-care/" target="_blank"> Socialized Medicine </a> is next on the list with analysis on the claims by several groups and politicians claiming that major health care bills called for a single-payer system.

McCaughey was back in the ranking with <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2009/02/doctors-orders/" target="_blank"> Dictating to Doctors</a>. That was her claim that the stimulus bill required doctors to follow government orders on medical procedures.

And then there's the <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2009/09/a-false-appeal-to-womens-fears/" target="_blank"> Breast Cancer Massacre</a>. That was a TV spot.

The infamous <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2009/08/twenty-six-lies-about-hr-3200/" target="_blank"> 26 Lies e-mail </a>. That missive was probably the most widely circulated chain e-mail of the year. There's a lot more to 09 whopper's analysis - Obama's birth certificate, global warming, swine flue - that say a lot about the state of politics and culture as we lurch toward a new decade. Buckle you seatbelts it's going to be a bumpy ride.
Kingsport jobs, part-time jobs, what jobs, when?
By Don Fenley
When you're looking at the local employment picture it's almost impossible to find any of those <a href="http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1900344,00.html" target="_blank">economic green shoots </a> everyone was talking about earlier this year. Everyone knows employment will recover as is the rest of the economy, but when and how are the questions on everyone's mind.

While Republicans and the president are sparring over an economic stimulus to create jobs the national unemployment rate is 10 percent. The November data for cities, counties and the state of Tennessee will be released later this month. In October Kingsport had a 9.7 jobless rate. In Sullivan County it was 9. But even those figures are optimistic when you take a hard look at the how and why of those numbers. They are optimistic because in the real world of employment almost 1 in 5 people are out of work or underemployed.

The government's broadest measure of unemployment in October put the national number at 17.5 percent. That's the highest the U-6 number has been since becoming an official labor statistic in 1994. The U-6 data isn't broken down on the state or local levels, so while it's impossible to precisely say what it would be on the Kingsport and Sullivan Co. levels it's safe to assume it's <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7212" target="_blank">quite a bit more than 9 or 9.7 percent</a>.

Here's how <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/34040009" target="_blank">CNBC.com</a> describes this facet of the employment picture. "The difference is that what is traditionally referred to as the "unemployment rate" only measures those out of work who are still looking for jobs. Discouraged workers who have quit trying to find a job, as well as those working part-time but looking for full-time work or who are otherwise underemployed, count in the U-6 rate."

With such a large portion of people facing such employment struggles, economists worry that an extended period of slow or flat growth lies ahead. That applies to the local situation just as much as the national outlook where <a href="http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/forecast/archive/doubledigit-unemployment-through-2010.html?si=1" target="_blank"> unemployment seems to climb despite economic growth</a>.

Janice Wininger at A1 Workforce in Kingsport says she's seeing some demand for workers in the hospitality sector this month, but that's about all. "Everything is pretty much flat."

Why hospitality?

Wininger says people are still spending some money for entertainment, but the demand for workers in that sector is a third of what it used to be.

According to <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_72/s0912017489604.htm" target="_blank">BusinessWeek </a> with funding still scarce, demand down, and temp workers readily available, <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/02/smallbusiness/small_business_white_house_jobs_forum/index.htm" target="_blank">small companies aren't ready to expand payroll</a>. That's telling because hiring by small businesses usually comes before hiring picks up at larger firms.

That's what Wininger says she's seeing from the local jobs market. That's especially true in the local demand for temp workers.

So what is she telling those who have been laid off and come to her firm looking for work?

Unless they have a specific set of skills that are in demand, she's advising her clients that if they have the opportunity for retraining in the medical and technology sectors "they can't go wrong." She also tells those who have been laid off that they'll likely be starting at the "bottom of the totem poll" when the employment shift comes- especially if they change careers.

As the above chart shows, the unemployment rates for Kingsport and Sullivan County are moderating, but it's also clear some <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7420" target="_blank">major changes have and will continue to change the local jobs landscape</a>.

November's Tennessee employment report is scheduled for release on Dec. 17. The report for cities and counties is due for release on Dec. 21.

Here's what the Bureau of Labor Statistic's snapshot of the Kingsport-Bristol TN-VA labor market looked like in October. The first number is the total number of employees in the job sectors. The second is the change in those sectors during the last 12 month period:

Total nonfarm employment - 118,000, -3.9%.

Mining, logging, construction - 7,000, -13.6%.

Manufacturing - 21,000, -9.9%.

Trade, transportation and utilities - 24,400, -4.3%.

Information - 2,400, -4%

Financial activities - 4,100, -4.7%.

Professional and business services - 8,500, -2.3%.

Education and health services - 18,800, +2.7%.

Leisure and hospitality - 12,100, -1.6%.

Other services - 3,900, -2.5%.

Government - 16,200 - no change.
Olive Garden has its Kinsport building permit
By Don Fenley
November's building permits offer some good news for Kingsport Olive Garden fans. The building permit for the $1,788,500 project has been filed. No word on an opening date, yet. Some of the chain restaurant's aficionados swear they can already smell the breadsticks.

Food City also has a permit for a 9,300 square foot $900,000 addition at its 1911 Moreland Drive location.

Although there's nothing on file yet there's some well-placed chatter about a new grocery store in West Kingsport. There's been a grocery void in that part of the city since the closure of Food Lion, Wynn Dixie and Food City's exodus to Church Hill over the "you can't sell beer here" flap.

For years, the West Stone Drive Super WalMart has had a lock on the grocery trade in that part of town. But the West Kingsport area has been evolving. The grow of some high-income neighborhoods and the bulking up of Mt. Carmel and Church Hill's population base hasn't gone unnoticed. So, despite the competition crushing reputation of the Super WalMart grocery operation things are looking ripe for some competition in that part of town.

In all there were 40 building permits filed in Kingsport last month. Some were for new single-family homes, the Riverview duplexes, additions, new roofs round out the list. New residential building is off 66 percent from last fiscal year's pace, but there is some construction happening.

Twenty-seven new businesses were also added to the Model City's rolls last month. They vary from Nutty Java, to weight loss clinics, an engineering firm to Psychic Reading by Rachel - maybe she see something in the cards that the economic naysayers haven't noticed.

Move To Kingsport folks is reporting 634 new families have moved to the Kingsport area during the five month from July to November. No, not all of them have relocated inside the city, but most have.

Although it will be a couple of weeks before the November numbers are in, there's some signs that the local employment might be getting a little better. A little better means some additional demand for part-time workers. Of course,most of it is seasonal but Janice Wininger at A1 Workforce says she's also seeing some demand for commercial construction workers.

Otherwise, the Kingsport area seems to be lagging the national employment picture. The most recent numbers there show a <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9018841" target="_blank"> decrease in the number of jobs being cut </a> and an increase in demand for <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2009-12-07-contractworkers07_ST_N.htm" target="_blank">part-time worker demand amid claims that 25 percent of the workforce may soon be temps</a>.
Property crime rates in NE Tennessee
By Don Fenley
Here's a quick look at the current property crime rates in Northeast Tennessee as reported on the FBI's Crime in America report.

The data in this chart was computed on a per capita of one instance of property crime for every 1,000 people based on the individual population of each community.

Crimes compiled by the FBI for the property crime index include burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. According to the FBI, due to limited participation and varying collection procedures by local law enforcement agencies, only limited data are available for arson. Arson statistics are included in trend, clearance, and arrest tables throughout Crime in the United States, but they are not included in any estimated volume data. The arson section in this report provides more information on that offense.

The breakdown of data used to compile the chart can be found by <a href="http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/data/table_08_tn.html" target="_blank"> CLICKING HERE </a>
NE Tenn. violent crime rates
By Don Fenley
Here's a revision of the chart posted earlier that contained an error in the Church Hill rate. The chart is a look at the current violent crime rates in Northeast Tennessee as reported on the FBI's Crime in America report.

The data in this chart was computed on a per capita of one instance of violent crime for every 1,000 people based on the individual population of each community.

Crimes compiled by the FBI for the violent crime index include murder, non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault.

The breakdown of data used to compile the chart can be found by <a href="http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/data/table_08_tn.html" target="_blank"> CLICKING HERE </a>

According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the national violent crime rates have generally stabalized since 2004 and are at their lowest levels since 1984-2002.

<a href="http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/viort.htm" target="_blank">CLICK HERE </a> for the data and a violent crime rates trend chart.
Our '09 most read item so far isn't a news story
By Don Fenley
Usually I read timesnews.net story comments only when there's a suggestion to kill a comment. The ability to make such suggestions is our way of deputizing readers. It's like bear hunting. Some days you eat the bear, some days the bears eat you. Sometimes it leads to something else.

I got one of those suggestions over the weekend from a reader who took exception to a comment on <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9018610" target="_blank">Johnson City 10-year-old arrested for assaulting staff member at school</a>. The suggestion was on target so the comment was toast.

Then I doubled back on the comment thread to confirm the offending comment was gone and read Thr DogNite's comment noting the story's ranking in timesnews.net "Most Popular News" function. This counter can be found in the right navigation rail when you're on a story page. There's one for the stories getting the most comments, too.

With a mouse click, you can see which story is the most popular of the day, week, month and year according to our page view counter.

During my newspaper career I've sat in on many arguments and several focus group studies the focused on what readers say they like, and what they actually read. The Most Popular News counter takes the guess work and opinion out of all of that.

Of course, the counter also takes some of the shine off the traditional top stories of the previous year articles that shows up on New Year's Day. I'll still do the annual round-up this year, but to add something that the counter doesn't do I'll throw in the total number of page views for the top stories and list the top staff blogs since there's no public counter for them.

Here's a preview of 2009's top timesnews.net stories and blog items so far this year. It sort of surprised me when I ran the totals because the top blog item has been read more times than the top news story.

Top five news stories so far this year:

1 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9015331" target="_blank"> Sisters take their YouTube success to Seventeen</a>

2 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9016239" target="_blank"> Sullivan South player dies after collapsing on field</a>

3 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9013029" target="_blank"> Coeburn pastor charged with indecent exposure at Kingsport's Riverfront Park restrooms </a>

4 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9016253" target="_blank"> Candlelight vigil held for Sullivan South's Jake Logue </a>

5 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9016313" target="_blank"> Police say gunman killed two, committed suicide in Hawkins County standoff </a>

Top five blog items so far this year:

1 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7522" target="_blank">Will swine flu shot protests spark next round of Tea Parties? </a>

2 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=59&postid=7452" target="_blank">Ranking the SEC... Quarterbacks</a>

3 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7241" target="_blank"> Texting trend: Naughty flirting, skanky teen sex </a>

4 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7332" target="_blank"> Of man caves and Riverfront Park restroom sex arrests </a>

5 - <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=2&postid=7457" target="_blank"> The Battle for Search and Twitter...The Underdog </a>
2012 doomsday myths - garbage in, garbage out
By Don Fenley
Talk about your hype machine. The Web conspiracy theorists, hype mongers and Hollywood promoters hoping to cash in on the Thanksgiving holiday movie trade have so many people wild-eyed and actually scared that some scientists are in over-time mode to balance some of the 2012 bunk.

If you step back and apply a little critical thinking to the prevalent, persistent dooms day myths they shirk into the darkness of the childhood closet terrors. Of course critical thinking and Web's myths and hype are often a contradiction in terms. In computer jargon it's a example of garbage in, garbage out.

Ian O'Neill, a science geek/astrophysicist and writer for <a href="http://news.discovery.com/" target="_blank">Discovery News</a>, has collection of articles that attempt to pop some of the popular end-time myth balloons.

Here's a capsule of his <a href="http://news.discovery.com/space/ray-villard-doomsday-theories.html" target="_blank"> Top 10 reasons why the world won't end in 2012</a>. It covers most the current "the world is ending hysteria" events.

10 - Changes in Sun's magnetic fields will lead to powerful flares - it happens every 11 years and has been for eons.

9 - Earth's magnetic field will reveres - It happened about 800,000 year, but then world didn't end back then either.

8 - Earth's rotation axis will tip - It would take something the size of Mars bumping into the earth to cause this to happen, and while "Girls Gone Wild" is based on some reality the science of the solar system doesn't support a "Planets Gone Wild" reality.

7 - Grand alignment of Jupiter and Saturn will mess with Earth's graviton. - Good scare theater but there's no science here.

6 - The Sun will align with the galactic equator on the winter solstice - So what? There are coordinates in the sky and have no more significant that the fact the I-26 and I-81 intersect near between Gray and Kingsport.

5 - A black hole in the center of the Milky Way will effect the Earth. A black hole in the center of the Milky Way would have no more effect on the trillions of solar masses that exist in the galaxy than a dog wagging its tail.

4 - As asteroid will hit Earth - The odds the most likely event of this happening is 1-in-250,000 when Apophis makes its next close approach. But you'll have to wait until 2029 for that.

3 - The planet Nibiru will swing by Earth - Sorry, there's no such rogue planet.

2 - A supernovae will irradiate Earth. In the real world of science the closest two stars that would be part of this event are so far away they would have little effect. And since neither has a spin axis aimed at Earth, there little to no chance of a gamma ray overload when their core explodes. The odds makers say there a 1 percent chance of something like that happening once ever 10 billion years. That makes the odds of winning the Powerball drawing look good.

1 - A cloud of negative energy will engulf the solar system. O'Neill calls this the "dark cloud with a bad attitude" myth. The reality is there's dark energy all around us now, but it's not packaged as a cloud.

And then there's the 2012 Mayan Calendar myth.

The Mayan Long Count calendar begins in 3,114 B.C., marking time in roughly 394-year periods known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baktun"target="_blank">Baktuns</a>. The 13th Baktun ends around Dec. 21, 2012, and the number 13 is a Mayan sacred number. But that doesn't mean the Mayan calendar is predicting the end of times.

That story has the Mayans and experts in the field RME, ROFL and ROFLOLAYing.

Here's how David Stuart, a real-live expert in Mayan epigraphy at the University of Texas at Austin - <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hook_%27em_Horns" target="_blank">Hook 'em Horns</a> - explained the calendar thing for NPR on <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=113714011" target="_blank"> Mayans insist that 2102 isn't the end of the world.</a>

"It's a special anniversary of creation. The Maya never said the world is going to end, they never said anything bad would happen necessarily, they're just recording this future anniversary on Monument Six."

In more precise terms, The Long Count calendar is going from 12 Baktuns to 13 Baktuns, like when our calendar changed from 1999 to 2000. Remember the Y2K stuff?

The Mayan calendar doesn’t end on 12-21-2012. When the Long Count calendar rolls over from Baktun 12 to Baktun 13 and starts over on it march toward Baktun 19 at which time it becomes <a href="http://www.sungwh.freeserve.co.uk/sapienti/maya/maya.htm" target="_blank">Pictun 1 </a>. When the calendar get up to Picturn 20 they'll start counting the Kinchiltuns and then the Alauturns. One Alautun is roughly 3,154,069 years.

If you're still with the doomsday myth busting, NPR's <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120436493" target="_blank"> Scared about Planet Nibiru? Nasa would like to help</a> is a good listen.

The fact of life is if you an average person the most dangerous thing you can do - the thing where you are most likely to get hurt of killed - is to get into your car and drive it. Or, you might die from a fall on the stairs at your home.

But for those who really want to worry about something here's how O'Neill says the end of the world will come, minus the change we'll pollute or war ourselves to death. "In approximately 4 billion years time, when the sun has depleted its supply of hydrogen in its core, our nearest star will swell like a balloon when it starts to burn heavier elements, swallowing the planets of the inner solar system.
Few green sprouts seen on the Kingsport, Bristol jobs scene
By Don Fenley
There weren't many bright spots in the current unemployment news on the national scene and later this week we'll get our first shot of what it looks like on the state and local level.

October's national numbers show unemployment at a 23 year high. And although the <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9017824" target="_blank">September trajectory for local unadjusted unemployment </a> was down, ETSU economist Steb Hipple latest labor market analysis showed <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9018267" target="_blank">no end to the recession on the local scene</a>. That analysis looked at data from the third quarter.

So far the national data points to continued job losses which make it clear the recovery will be sluggish through 2010. That has the conservatives opponents of President Obama trumpeting the fact that unemployment is at its highest rate in 23 years. That's true. The U.S. hasn't seen unemployment numbers like those reported the Reagan administration was clawing its way out of the economic ruins left by the Carter, Ford and Nixon administrations.

And since the Tri-Cities is back into the mode of trailing the national trends most indicators point to more economically bumpy times for the short term. The reason is simple. Jobs are a trailing or lagging indicator. Change is seen in response to other economic events instead of predicting changes the way a leading indicator - like the stock market. In other words, even though the recession is technically over, employers will wait until demand increases sufficiently to require staff additions.

Tennessee's unemployment data will be released Thursday, followed by the city and county data the day before Thanksgiving.

One of the few bright spots on the local employment scene mirrors a similar observation on the national. Hiring of temporary workers is beginning to pick up. That's a good sign because temporary employment is a sign employers are reacting to the demand for more output even if they're not confident enough to make permanent hires.

Janice Wininger at A1 Accuforce in Kingsport says she has seen a "little pick up" in the last couple of weeks in the retail and leisure sectors. She thinks most that is due to the holiday and doesn't reflect much of a trend. She also says there's still some demand in the commercial construction jobs sector.

Wininger said the number of clients she's seeing now has tripled. See doesn't see any indications that there any immediate demand for workers other than temporary.

Several others shared similar observations about the local unemployed labor force, and one person observed that there didn't seem to be a lot of motivation for some of those in the jobless ranks to change their status.

Here's what the Bureau of Labor Statistics snapshot of the Kingsport-Bristol TN-VA employment picture by sector looked like in September. The tracking is the year-to-date data for the past 12 months.

Non farm jobs - down 3.6 percent.

Mining, logging and construction - down 12.2 percent.

Manufacturing - down 9.4 percent.

Trade, transportation and utilities - down 3.5 percent.

Information - down 7.7 percent

Financial activities down 2.3 percent.

Professional and business services - down 4.5 percent.

Education and health services - up 2.7 percent.

Leisure and hospitality - down 0.8 percent

Other services - down 2.5 percent.

Government - no change.
Sexting: Grandma, grandpa say it isn't so!
By Don Fenley
Sending naughty photos and text messages isn't just for the younger set anymore.

Shortly after the first of the year I happened onto a trend story about a youth fad called <a href="http://www.impactlab.com/2008/05/07/sexting-foreplay-via-text-messaging/" target="_blank"> sexting </a> and wrote a blog titled <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7241" target="_blank"> Texting trend: Naught flirting, skanky teen sex</a>.

That kept the topic high on my list of news items to watch as I do my daily rounds of reading. Almost a year has past and there have been stories about suspension and expulsions from school. Some young peopole have been <a href="http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=sexting&sourceid=navclient-ff&rlz=1B2GGFB_enUS230US230&um=1&ie=UTF-8&ei=s-b-SrPkDJ6ltge1rtWRDg&sa=X&oi=video_result_group&ct=title&resnum=4&ved=0CCYQqwQwAw#" target="_blank"> charged with sex crimes</a> including kiddie porn charges.

The tends spawned a lot of media coverage and a pretty good <a href="http://www.thatsnotcool.com/" target="_blank">Web site </a> for parents who wanted to point their kids to someone who spoke the same language.

The edge may be off some of what the middle and high school and college crowd do, but it shows no sigh of going away. Instead it has migrated to the generation that embraced everything - the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomer" target="_blank"> Baby Boomers</a>.

According to an <a href="http://www.aarp.org/family/love/articles/sexting_not_just_for_kids.html?cmp=NLC-WBLTR-CTRL-111309-F1" target="_blank"> AARP News </a> article the senior set has embraced sexting. And, the don't face the same legal issues as young people face.

Here's how the AARP News report launches into the topic, "When Roger gets to an intimate stage with a woman these days, it usually doesn't take long until the sexy photos start. His dating partners either request that he send them a suggestive—or downright explicit—photo from his cell phone to theirs, or they just send one themselves, completely unsolicited."

I guess it makes sense, but the article points out that Roger, 59, has been "enjoying" this form of high-tech flirtation for years now with a bevy of sassy ladies.

"Shocked? Don't be. More and more of the 50+ set, both single and married, are using text messaging to spice up their sex lives. Boomers, often sandwiched between teenagers, aging parents, and busy work schedules, are taking advantage of the new technology because it's fast, easy, and fun."

Relationship coach Suzanne Blake told AARP News she has seen and heard it all when it comes to sexting, including a wife who enjoys sexting her husband while he's traveling on business, telling (and showing) him what he's missing at home. While this may surprise some, Blake's not surprised at all.

So far, I haven't noticed many seniors being outed for their kinky pixs, but there's sort of a unwritten law about nude photos. It goes this something like this, "If you allow a nude picture to be taken of you it will sooner or later end up in the public eye" - it a real case of information wanting to be free.

If you stay with the article and follow the links you'll get a eye-opener about how today's senior culture is and it's not all bridge and shuffle board. It makes you look at those Senior Citizen Center Pot Luck Dinners in a different light, doesn't it?
How Sullivan, Washington counties look on foreclosure report
By Don Fenley
Foreclosures continued their decline for the third straight month in October, but there's a nettlesome worry that the stagnant employment picture might derail the trend.

Nationally the number of people on the brink of losing their homes dipped gain in October. The reasons vary. Foreclosure prevention programs are helping more borrowers and for those who still have a job there's some improvement in the economy. The threat is the ranks of those who have lost their jobs and are still struggling to find new work.

The long picture also dulls the three-month improvement trend. Foreclosures are still 19 percent higher than they were a year ago, according to a <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=113814241" target="_blank"> NPR report</a> on the <a href="http://www.realtytrac.com/"target="_blank">RealtyTrac</a> October update.

Nationally more than 332,000 households, or 1 in every 385 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice in October, such as a notice of default or trustee's sale. That's down 3 percent from September.

Here's how the drill down to the local level looks.

Tennessee ranks 23 in the nation for foreclosures. There were 4,030 homes under foreclosure stress - that means receiving some type of foreclosure notice - in October, 1 in every 676 housing units in the state. According to Census data there at 2,232,905 housing units in the state.

Sullivan Co. had 32 foreclosures on RealtyTrac's October data sheet. That's 1 in every 2,299 housing units in a county with 73,548 housing units. RealtyTrac did not list the average sales price of a Sullivan Co. foreclosure.

Here's what the October foreclosure picture looked like the Sullivan Co. communities:

Bristol - 12 foreclosures - 1 in every 1,578 housing units.
Bluff City - 2 foreclosures - 1 in 2,761 housing units.
Piney Flats - 1 foreclosure - 1 in every 3,122 housing units.
Blountville - no data.
Kingsport - 17 foreclosures - 1 in every 2,458 housing units.

Washington Co. logged 29 homes under foreclosure stress in October's RealtyTrac data. That's 1 in every 1,823 of the county's 52,741 housing units. RealtyTrac listed the average October sales price of a foreclosure home in Washington Co. as $101,979.

Here's what it looked like in Washington Co. communities for October:

Fall Branch - 3 foreclosures - 1 in every 591 housing units.
Limestone - 2 foreclosures - 1 in every 1,431 housing units.
Telford - 1 foreclosure - 1 in every 1,292 housing units.
Jonesborough - 6 foreclosures - 1 in every 1,730 housing units.
Johnson City - 17 foreclosures - 1 in every 2491 housing units.

A broader look at the foreclosure picture Americans are getting antsy about how Washington is handling it. BusinessWeek in a story headlined <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2009/11/americans_grow.html" target="_blank"> Americans more unhappy with Feds' Housing Fix </a> cities a new survey from <a href="http://www.move.com/" target="_blank">Move Inc.</A>, the parent of <a href="http://www.realtor.com/" target="_blank">Realtor.com</a>, that says Americans are growing increasingly dissatisfied with the results of the trillions spent on propping up banks, buying mortgages, tax credits and new programs designed to lower payments and prevent foreclosures

The October 2009 survey found that the federal government’s approval rating by consumers on housing issues has slipped since March 2009. By a six-percent margin, Americans said they don’t think the government is doing enough to stabilize the housing market (48.2% compared to 42.2% five months ago). According to the survey, consumers still want low interest rates (31.4%) and action by the government to help homeowners prevent foreclosures (28.5%), the same two top priorities expressed by survey respondents in March.

And here' how the respondents to a Rasmussen survey looked at the extension and expansion of the housing tax credits: <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/housing/november_2009/americans_favor_home_buyer_tax_credit_until_they_hear_how_much_it_costs" target="_blank"> Americans favor home buyer tax credit until they hear how much it costs</a>.

According to the report 55 percent of Democrats continue to support it, while 53 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of the unaffiliateds are opposed to the tax credits.

Rasmussen's survey story also points, out, "The majority of all three groups oppose expanding the tax credit plan to those who already own houses and earn more money. Again, unaffiliated adults are more skeptical than Democrats and Republicans.

"The first-time home buyer credit was originally included in the economic stimulus plan passed by Congress in February and was set to expire at the end of this month. Under the newly approved plan, the Associated Press reports, “buyers who have owned their current homes at least five years would be eligible for tax credits of up to $6,500. First-time home buyers — or anyone who hasn't owned a home in the last three years — would still get up to $8,000.”

"At least $8.5 billion has already been “spent” on the tax credit program. The extension is expected to cost an additional $10.8 billion in lost tax revenue. Supporters of the plan from both political parties argue that it will boost the troubled U.S. housing market."
Kiffin, Beamer don't run with big dogs in pay game
By Don Fenley
There's no denying that many are having a tough go of it on today's labor market, but things look pretty good for college football coaches.

According to a <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/2009-coaches-contracts-database.htm?poe=HFMostPopular" target="_blank"> USA Today analysis </a> salaries for NCAA coaches are up in the down economy.

UT's Lane Kiffin has a base salary of only $350,000 but his other income and maximum bonus boosts his total potential to $2 million.

Frank Beamer at Va Tech doesn't do quite as well with $272,328 salary, but his other income and maximum bonus weighs him in a little better than Kiffin on the top end with a total potential salary package of $2,172,127 million.

Rick Stockstill at Middle Tennessee has to make do with a $195,155 salary, $86,500 in other pay and a maximum bonus of $112,180.

Scrolling through USA Today's database quickly shows neither area coach is a big dog in the NCAA 2009 coaching pay game. That distinction goes to
Pete Carroll at Southern California. He gets a cool $4,386,652 and that's sans the other salary and bonus incentives.

Top-end salary for assistant coaches at Tennessee is $1,200,000. Assistants on the bottom of the pay totem pole get $110,000.

At Va. Tech the best-paid assistant coach gets $402,000. The least well-paid gets $142,285.

Assistant coaches pay tops out at $105,652 at Middle Tennessee. The bottom end is $56,000.
Kingsport-Bristol loses 35.5 % of its manufacturing jobs
By Don Fenley
The <a href="http://www.ucdailynews.com/news/business/69050287.html" target="_blank"> Cookville Times </a> is citing a Tennessee Manufacturing Register report that says the state has lost 56,647 jobs in the past two years to closures and layoffs. The loss equals 12.6 percent of all the manufacturing jobs in the state.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data show <a href="http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?series_id=SMU47287003000000001&data_tool=XGtable" target="_blank">Kingsport-Bristol's share of that loss</a> during the same period was 11.6 percent, or 2,700 manufacturing jobs.

According to the MNI report, Tennessee’s 7, 711 manufacturers currently employ 403, 030 workers compared to 547, 494 workers in 2001. There was a 26.4 percent decline amounting to 144, 464 job losses.

The Kingsport-Bristol data mirrors the state data for the same period with a 26.3 percent decline to 21,300 manufacturing jobs in September 2009. If you extend that date to a 1999 to a 2009 year-to-date comparison the Kingsport-Bristol MSA lost 35.5 percent of our manufacturing job base. That's probably more concise picture of the long-term change the region's employment base is undergoing.
Are greedy bosses, stingy bankers stalling economic recovery?
By Don Fenley
Even the most casual news consumers have heard this buzz - if it weren't for stingy bankers and greedy bosses the U.S. economy would be roaring down the recovery track.

There's some truth to parts of that buzz. Employers are not rushing to hire people, and credit is tight. But there's more to the story and it deserves some context.

First let's set the scene:

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics about 15.1 million people in the U.S. are now unemployed. Another 9.2 million are "involuntary part-time worker." These workers exist in the unappreciated shadows of the <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7212" target="_blank">U-6 category of employment data</a>.

It's also no secret that employment has not fully come back during the past two recessions. Employers have found ways to be more efficient, technology has made workers more productive and the U.S. has been transforming from a manufacturing based economy to a services and information based economy. Some workers retrain and gain. Others are hard luck stories - that's especially true for those in the 50+ ranks.

That's just as evident in Kingsport as it is anywhere else. Back in June when Kingsport employers had shed about 600 jobs I wrote an update titled <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7420" target="_blank"> Scrubs replacing hard hats in Kingsport</a>. The short version of that blog is: Education and heath care is the big growth segment in the Model City's employment picture. Trade, Transportation and Utilities is NO. 1 with 20.8 percent of the jobs, Manufacturing is declining but still has 18 percent of the jobs while Education and Health Services is growing with 15.8 percent of all jobs. Government comes in next with 13.4 percent of all Kingsport jobs.

Fast forward to the <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9017824" target="_blank">most current employment data </a> that shows Kingsport's employers have cut 956 jobs. Still, if you check the help wanted ads there are jobs available, but only for people with specific skill sets. And there's some speculation that high unemployment <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9017771" target="_blank"> may be the new norm.</a>.

Four points that seem to support that are:

• The auto and construction industries helped lead the nation out of past recessions. But the carnage among automakers, auto parts manufacturers like TRW and the surplus of new and foreclosed homes and empty commercial properties make it unlikely these two industries will be engines of growth anytime soon.

• The job market is caught in a vicious circle: Without more jobs, U.S. consumers will have a hard time increasing their spending; but without that spending, businesses might see little reason to start hiring.

• Many small and mid-size businesses are still struggling to obtain bank loans, impeding their expansion plans and constraining overall economic growth.

• Higher-income households are spending less because of big losses on their homes, retirement plans and other investments. Lower-income households are cutting back because they can't borrow like they once did.

So much for the greedy bosses. How about those stingy bankers? You know the ones I'm talking about. <a href="http://podcast.com/show/109239/" target="_blank"> President Obama </a> scolded them to increase their lending to small business in his national radio broadcast Saturday. And <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/oct/27/us-bankers-annual-convention" target="_blank">bankers are beginning to push back</a> against taking the rap for the economy's ills.

Credit is tight, that's true. But there's more here than a simplistic case of political scapegoating from the White House bully pulpit about bankers with a strangle hold on credit.

I sure don't want to sound like an apologist for bankers but it's reality that there's a pretty big disjunct between political rhetoric about what's good for small business and what the FDIC is enforcing these days. Least we forget, <a href="http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2599372/" target="_blank">106 U.S. banks have failed</a> so far this year. And the FDIC has a 416 "problem lenders" on its watch list.

No banker wants to see his institution on the weekly
<a href="http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html" target="_blank">FDIC's Failed Bank List</a>.

Here's the way is sounds from the other side. There's local money available to borrowers who can show they can service the debt. While politicians say bankers need more skin in the recovery game, the people seeking loans need to get used to the idea that they need more of their own working capital in the game.

Back in days when the economy was strong 100 percent loans to small businesses, developers and builders were no big deal. But that was then and now is now. The current business landscape is littered with the savages of past abuses that created the worst economic upheaval since the Great Depression.

But does that mean there are not some bankers who may be trying to game the "more FED bailout money is coming down the pike" equation? Probably not.

I've heard several local contractors swear that's what some local governments did with projects already planned and funded, but put on hold for stimulus money.
Obama v. Fox News good political theater, but so what?
By Don Fenley
While some are making the Obama v. Fox News brouhaha sound like the shootout at the OK Corral these type spats between the press and those in power are not exactly new.

Snarky sniping between with those with clout and the media - both news and entertainment - is common place and always has been. Hardly a week passes anywhere in the nation when a business person, mayor, school board member or a supervisor of something doesn't pick up the phone, call the newsroom and protest that they haven't been treated fairly.

Sometimes these complaints have merit. Other times, it's little more than someone who has clout and hasn't gotten their way winning about it.

In fact, it's common for a reporter or a news medium is disfavor to be shut out of the access game for a while. It happens on the local level just as much as it does nationally. It's a tactic used day-in and day-out in the push-and-shove between those who cover news and those who are in the news and what it covered their way.

Most of this behind the scenes maneuvering never get public note.

What does make this spat different is: the 24-hour news cycle; Internet mediums that have let the public join in the fray; and the red-hot confrontation between the Obama Administration and what is being dubbed the conservative echo chamber ie Fox News and conservative talk radio.

One of the more interesting local parries and trusts was <a href="http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2009/oct/22/alexander-warns-of-obama-enemies-list/" target="_blank">Tenn. Sen. Lamar Alexander's hand wringing </a> about shades of the Nixon Administration's enemies list. That drew a prompt rebuttal from <a href="http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2009/oct/23/democrats-gop-disagree-alexanders-criticism/" target="_blank"> from Democrats who saw it as Alexander's </a> way of tiptoeing away from his reputation as a moderate Republican - aka RINO - for safer political ground within the aura of Glenn Beck.

Two of the better examinations of all the political theater comes compliments of the <a href="http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2009/10/column-america-weve-seen-worse-.html" target="_blank">USA Today op-ed page column</a> written by Sandy Grady and the Christian Science Monitor's <a href="http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2009/10/21/obamas-fox-news-offensive-has-it-worked/ " target="_blank"> Obama’s Fox News offensive: Has it worked?</a>

Grady writes, "our 2009 partisan jostling has a new, maybe dangerous, twist — the Frankenstein technology of cable news, the Internet, Twitter and Facebook that created a deafening 24-hour echo chamber. The rancor isn't worse, but it's far noisier."

It also reminds what is supposed to be a super-media-savvy administration to not underestimate the "Secret of the Echo Chamber: The louder the personal barbs and invective, the higher go ratings. The high-tech, smash-mouth style drifts down to congressional and town-hall copycats. So we get health care blather about death panels, government abortions, free care for illegal aliens."

History should show those who just can't resist jousting with radio talk shows host the folly of such an impossible quest. It's like Forest Gump said, "Stupid is as stupid does"

And least anyone forget the talk radio tactic is not new. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Coughlin" target="_blank">Father Charles Coughlin </a> was a Roman Catholic priest who pioneered the use of radio to reach a mass audience. Back in the 1930s he had an audience of more than 40 million for his weekly program, which was getting up to 80,000 fan letters a week. He reached the height of his fame by savaging Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal. He later shifted gears and used his program to rationalize some of the policies of Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini.

Obviously the Obama v. Fox, Limbaugh, Beck, conservative talks radio et. brouhaha all isn't over yet. Until it is the back and forth provided by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilting_at_windmills" target="_blank"> tilting at windmills </a> is good media theater for those so inclined to choose the sizzle and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vb7GNzzIVIo" target="_blank"> dirty laundry</a> over the other current event offerings.

Oh, there's one more local example of the popularity of the "Fair and Balanced" debate. Go no further than Sam Pratt's letter to the editor, <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9017666 " target"_blank"> Fox News gives viewers the fact" </a> and the comments debate it started.
Black Friday 2009: If you snooze you loose
By Don Fenley
OK all you penny-pinching Black Friday warriors, there's been a slight change in the game plan this year.

It's no secret that retailers are looking at flat Christmas sales. At least that's what the retail trade groups are saying. But if you look back and compare what they have predicted in years past to what the sold you'll see they're often conservative with forecasts and happy with sales that beat the estimates. But that's another story.

What does seem certain this year is retailers have pared back their inventories and are kick starting the shopping season early. So early that the first Christmas displays are appearing before the Halloween offerings are off the shelves.

The bottom line for the bargain hunters who play the waiting game for rock-bottom discounts at the end of the season is simply this: You may find slim pickings this year if you wait too long.

Kathy Grannis, of the National Retail Federations, says bargain hunters can expect earlier promotions this year. You don't have to expect that. It's already here.

A quick Web check shows that <a href="http://www.blackfriday.info/" target="_blank"> Blackfricay.info </a> currently has three '09 updates. One touts a $199.99 Nintendo rumor. And <a href="http://bfads.net/" target="_blank">Black Friday 2009 </a> is busy gathering e-mail addys for their alerts. They also have links to some coupon codes for pre-holiday sales. Consider it a Black Friday warm up.

Some retailers are also building sales kitties with special layaway plans or Christmas-club cards. Those who buy in by the end of this month get an extra 3% bonus went the sales are rolled out.

The answer to the "what will be the hot bargain" this year is also beginning to emerge.

Shawn DuBravac, director of research for the Consumer Electronics Association told the folks at <a href="http://www.kiplinger.com/magazine/archives/2009/11/black_friday_bargains_beckon.html" target="_blank"> Kiplinger.com </a> that he expects to see Blu-ray disc players for $99 and a lots of deals on computers and netbooks. He also thinks retailers will offer some good software bundles with computer deals.

If a new computer is one of the items on you list, it might be a good ideal to read <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=5&postid=7534" target="_blank"> Ted Como's </a> blog that went live on timesnews.net Monday. It's all about the ins-and-outs of upgrading to Windows7.

According to Kiplinger, clothing shoppers will find deeper discounts on store bands this year, but not so much elsewhere.

For those who are beginning to make their list and check it twice here's links to some of the sites that will keep you up-to-date on Black Friday happenings and some comparison shopping sites you can use to compare prices and deals.

<a href="http://www.blackfriday.gottadeal.com/" target="_blank"> BlackFriday@gottadeal </a>
 
<a href="http://bfads.net/" target="_blank">Black Friday 2009</a>

<a href="http://www.consumersearch.com/" target="_blank">ConsumerSearch.com </a> collects product reviews..

<a href="http://www.retailmenot.com/" target="_blank">RetailMeNot </a> is a mega coupon code site covering 20,000 online stores. Just copy the code of the product you want and enter it when checking out online.

<a href="http://www.beatmyprice.com/" target="_blank">BeatMyPrice.com </a> shops for you .

<a href="http://www.blackfriday.info/sales/" target="_blank">BlackFriday.info </a>. lists the best sales at major retail stores.

<a href="http://www.fatwallet.com/" target="_blank">FatWallet.com </a> tracks online deals.

<a href="http://www.pricegrabber.com/" target="_blank">PriceGrabber.com </a> comparison shops for you.

<a href="http://www.woot.com/" target="_blank">Woot.com</a> consistently delivers remarkable deals on stuff you didn't know you wanted.
FTC cracking down on bloggers, social media
By Don Fenley
Bloggers, and budding social media marketing gurus on Twitter and Facebook will soon have to fess up if their endorsements and product touts are bought and paid for before they're written.

Rules covering testimonials in advertising and product endorsements that have been in place since 1980 will soon be modified to include bloggers and social media.

According to a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/06/business/media/06adco.html " target="_blank"> New York Times </a> report on the change, after Dec. 1, bloggers who review products must disclose any connection with advertisers, including, in most cases, the receipt of free products and whether or not they were paid in any way by advertisers, as occurs frequently. The new rules also take aim at celebrities, who will now need to disclose any ties to companies, should they promote products on a talk show or on Twitter. A second major change, which was not aimed specifically at bloggers or social media, was to eliminate the ability of advertisers to gush about results that differ from what is typical — for instance, from a weight loss supplement.

It's about time.

I have to admit I've had a few offers to guarantee good product plugs on a foodie blog <a href="http://2cheap2eatout.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"> 2cheap2eatout</a> I pay with. I've never been that tempted to respond. But I've read about bloggers who sell good products reviews and need helpers to cart all the goodies they get. They can still do that after next month, but they'll need to disclose it.

Disclosure isn't the biggest underlying issue here. The thing to pay attention to is the trend that government is intent on "bringing to bear on the Internet the same sorts of regulations that have governed other forms of media, like television or print."

Here's how Richard Cleland, assistant director of the division of advertising practices at the FTC, summed it up for the Times: “We were looking and seeing the significance of social media marketing in the 21st century and we thought it was time to explain the principles of transparency and truth in advertising and apply them to social media marketing.”

There's no way around the fact that social media as well as blogs, offer companies and individuals new opportunities with a new medium to pitch products. They've taken huge chunks of what used to be print advertising. Some predict they'll take more. There's also much truth in the assumption that those pitches and endorsements come with a veneer of authenticity because on the surface them seem to be coming straight from consumers. Simply put, those who have engaged in that are running a scam and some transparency is needed.

Yes, there are some product review blogs that are transparent about what they do - the best example is <a href="http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/index.htm" target="_blank">Consumer Reports</a>/ But they are up-front about what they do so they're fostered a trusted brand. Unfortunately they're outnumbered by the Wild, Wild West cowboys and cowgirls of Web marketing.

None of this should be a surprise to the players. The FTC telegraphed the move months ago. But step back and take a longer trend look at what's happening on the Web. You'll find a moderating influence at work.

For example, there's a slow, but steady, stream of legal actions that providing a reality bite to the bloggers and story comment mavens who shoot from the lip (keyboard). The trend message that <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7474" target="_blank">libel laws </a> also pertain to <a href="http://www.timesnews.net/blogger.php?id=4&postid=7275 " target="_blank">online communications should be getting through</a>.

Wouldn't it be interesting the same transparency were applied to political speech and advertising where <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2004/06/false-ads-there-oughta-be-a-law-or-maybe-not/" target="_blank">candidates have a legal right to lie to voters as much as they want</a>.
Will swine flu shot protests spark next round of Tea Parties?
By Don Fenley
If <a href="http://www.trendsresearch.com/" target="_blank">Trends Research Institute </a> Director <a href="http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html" target="_blank">Gerald Celente </a> is right another volley may have been fired in what he is calling the "Second American Revolution."

In August while most everyone's attention was still focused on the <a href="http://taxdayteaparty.com/" target="_blank">Tea Parties</a>, Celente was already in fast-forward trend identification mode.

Here's part of an e-mail trend alert he sent to clients, "While there are many wild cards that could light the fuse, The Trends Research Institute forecasts that if the threat of government-forced Swine Flu vaccinations is realized, it will be the fourth shot (of the second American Revolution). Tens of millions will fight for their right to remain free and unvaccinated."

News reports about this issue have slowly registering it. The Wall Street Journal cited it Saturday. Headlines in Wednesday's papers stepped up the tempo as they heralded the protests of <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2009-09-29-swine-flu-mandatory_N.htm" target="_blank"> New York state health care workers </a> who have been told to take the swine flu shot or lose their jobs.

But the issue is already beyond the New York state lines.

According to a <a href="http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/09/26/Some-resistant-to-mandatory-flu-shots/UPI-73921253978509/" target="_blank"> UPI report</a> , <a href="http://www.hcahealthcare.com/CustomPage.asp?guidCustomContentID=56B0A2BE-268D-407A-BA31-3223710C7EC0" target="_blank">Hospital Corp. of America</a>, with clinics and hospitals in 20 states including Tennessee and Virginia, is requiring its 120,000 employees to be vaccinated.

It's likely as reporters begin checking with their local health care providers they will find the same thing at other institutions. If so, hundreds of thousands of nurses, doctors and other healthcare workers could be ordered to become vaccinated as the second wave of the H1N1 pandemic spreads this fall. And the mandate trend from health care providers to their workers is fueling concerns and rumors that the H1N1 vaccine may become mandatory for everyone.

Lori Price of Citizens for Legitimate Government, a Connecticut-based group that opposes government expansion. "It's all part of an encroachment on our liberties," Price told The Wall Street Journal in a story published Saturday.

Celente says the Tea Parties and the fiery town hall health care meetings in August were just two of the symptoms of a larger issue. "America is seething. Not since the Civil War has anything like this happened. But the protests are either being intentionally downplayed or ignorantly misinterpreted.

"The White House and the media have labeled protestors "conservative fringe elements," or as players in staged events organized by Republican operatives that have been egged on by Fox news and right-wing radio show hosts.

"Health industry interests opposed to any reform are also being blamed for inciting the public. But organized or spontaneous is not the issue. While most protestors exhibit little grasp of the complex 1000 page health care reform document (that nary a legislator has read either), their emotion is clearly real and un-staged.

"Rightly or wrongly, the legislation is regarded as yet another straw on the already overloaded camel's back. A series of gigantic, unpopular government-imposed (but taxpayer-financed) bailouts, buyouts, rescue and stimulus packages have been stuffed down the gullet of Americans. With no public platform to voice their opposition, options for citizens have been limited to fruitless petitions, e-mails and phone calls to Congress, all fielded by anonymous staff underlings."

It would be a mistake to attribute the anger to Democrats or Republicans or President Obama. It's broader. if the current <a href="http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/pubs/Harris_Poll_2009_09_30.pdf" target="_blank">satisfaction ratings </a>and opinion polls are right much of it is focused on a discontent with Congress and the various levels of government. According to the Harris Poll, Congress 81 percent of poll respondents think Congress is doing a poor job.

The bottom line according to Celente is the legislation is another instance of government taking another piece out of the citizens' lives and making them pay for it; again telling them what they can or cannot do.

He predicts that what he's calling the Second American Revolution "will become the most profound political trend of the century - the trend that will change the world" even if it is still invisible to the same experts, authorities and pundits who didn't see the financial crisis coming until the bottom fell out of the economy.

Clente predicts that with the "ubiquitous camera-equipped cell phone, universal access to YouTube, and millions of twitters and tweets, the uprisings cannot be ignored, contained, managed, spun or edited down in the media or spun to a more favorable viewing from politicians. "A false flag attempt, a genuine crisis, or a declaration of war, may slow the momentum of the "Second American Revolution," but nothing will stop it." he writes.

That was what Celente was telling his clients in August. He bases his trends identification business on the idea that currents events can point to trends that are missed by traditional economic or social science studies. In his book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Trend-Tracking-System-Profit-Todays/dp/0446392871" target="_blank">Trend Tracking</a>, Celente says anyone can identify trends by disciplined reading news stories and applying some equally disciplined interpretations. The three things that first qualify a group of news stories on the same topic as an issue to watch is the issue has to have "social, economical and political significance."

While there's no one in the trends business with a 100 percent record, this element of the ongoing swine flu story is something to watch during the coming weeks.
Kingsport's August home sales follow the national blip down
By Don Fenley
It looks like Kingsport has fallen back to its old economic trends pattern.

Until recently the Kingsport region was spared the worst of the Great Recession's employment, sales tax and housing market jolts. In fact, at one point the Kingsport-Bristol MSA ranked third best in the nation for home price appreciation. That came at a time when most other areas' prices were in the toilet. But that was then and now is now.

Kingsport is back to a pattern where it mirrors or lags the national economic bad news.

August's unemployment was somewhat of exception. The state jobless rate was 10.8 percent and national unemployment rates were 9.7 percent while it was 9.4 percent in Kingsport.

The same wasn't the case for August's existing home sales. The national numbers backed off a 4-month winning streak to post a loss. Kingsport's sales broke a six-month string of small but steady sales volume increases during August with slight drop in sales. But when looking at the year-to-date sales compared to the same period last year, Kingsport is 25 percent off the sales pace.

Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors President Carla Dunn says she thinks the local market will experience a bumpy period for the next six months or so as it experiences ups and downs while gaining a toehold on a firm recovery.

A bright spot for Kingsport came in the August value index for properties in the 37665 area - it was up 21.2%.

Here's what the Zillow.com Home Value Index for August looked like in Kingsport zip codes.

37660:
Month-to-month, down 2.6%.
Quarter-to-quarter, down 3.37%.
Median listing price $145,000.

37663:
Month-to-month, down 5.6%.
Quarter-to-quarter, no data.
Median listing price $169,900.

37664:
Month-to-month, down 5.6%.
Quarter-to-quarter, down 8.1%.
Median listing price $169,900.

37665:
Month-to-month, up 21.2%.
Quarter-to-quarter, up 21.2%.
Median listing price $109,000.

According to data gleaned from Trilla.com:
- The median sales prince in the 37660 zip code area August was $89,900, down 9.1 percent from last year.
- The median sales price in the 37663 zone was $135,000 down 8.1 percent from last year.
- In 37664 the median sales price was $126,000 up 8.65 percent from last year.
- The 37665 median sales price was $42,000 down 32.2 percent from last year.

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