Week 3 picks: Getting Swamped?

Orange Clockwork

Published Thursday, September 17 2009 - (0) Comments

Based on all the talk on a national level this week, there's no point in even watching Tennessee play Florida Saturday.

The Gators will win. The Gators will win big. Based on ESPN chatter and the work of several national columnists, you'd think Florida was beginning the game with a 14-0 lead.

Here's the thing, though. Monte Kiffin knows a little something about the option offense. And considering the general amount of talent in the Tennessee defense, especially at the back end, I find it hard to believe the Vols give up 50 points to anybody.

Assuming, of course, Tennessee doesn't do anything to help out Florida.

That means no interceptions by Jonathan Crompton in Tennessee territory. In fact, no turnovers of any kind by the offense.

It also means the Vols keep Brandon James contained in the kicking game, which translates to kicking the ball out of bounds. Every time.

Florida is a better team. And a better program. That's indisputable fact, and it's something even the most fervent Tennessee fan seems to accept these days--which is a statement in itself about how far the Vols fell under Phillip Fulmer over the course of this decade.

Florida will win big, but I think Kiffin's defense keeps it reasonable until the fourth quarter. Florida 37, Tennessee 10.
Last week was a much more respectable 13-2 performance. The only losses? Notre Dame at Michigan and... Tennessee over UCLA. It should be noted I picked the Bruins to win that game in my preseason predictions column.

Remember, kids, that first instinct's usually a good one.

Some from-the-gut picks for Week 3.

Virginia Tech 26, Nebraska 22: That season opener against Alabama toughened up the Hokies, whose ground game is humming along right now. The Cornhuskers will be a tougher foe than Marshall, but Lane Stadium, "Beamerball" and Bud Foster's tough defense make up the difference.

Georgia Tech 23, Miami 21: The Hurricanes would love to get back to the top of the mountain in the ACC this season. If they win this game, I'll be a believer. Until then, I'm taking the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia 36, Arkansas 34: This is a must-win for the Bulldogs, who are showing some serious flaws through two games--albeit against some good competition. Still, Georgia has to win this one. We'll see how much the Hogs' defense has really improved. Arkansas played Missouri State, then had last week off.

Vanderbilt 14, Mississippi State 10: The Bulldogs looked rough last week, and now have to travel to Vanderbilt. The Commodores aren't going to blow away anybody in the SEC, but they won't be a pushover either. All those experienced starters, home field and a quality coaching staff give Vandy the edge.

West Virginia 27, Auburn 23: The Tigers look like the most improved team in the SEC through the first two weeks of the season. Still, West Virginia is the first team Auburn will face that has legitimate aspirations this year. And the Mountaineers arguably have more speed than the Tigers.

Alabama 38, North Texas 17: The Crimson Tide's tour through the Sun Belt Conference continues. This is also part of the unofficial SEC-Sun Belt "challenge" (now coming with 50 percent less challenge) taking place at three SEC schools on Saturday. Did you hear that North Texas coach Todd Dodge coached current Alabama QB Greg McElroy in high school? Don't worry, if you watch the SEC Network telecast of this game, you'll have that tidbit drilled into your cerebral cortex.

South Carolina 28, Florida Atlantic 10: Part II of the SEC-Sun Belt swing. The Owls have some talent, but they'll be overwhelmed by the Gamecocks.

LSU 41, Louisiana Lafayette 21: Lafayette beat Kansas State last week in Manhattan (fine timing after giving a five-year extension to 70-year-old once and former coach Bill Snyder). The streak ends on Saturday. The real Ragin' Cajuns are the ones who fill up Tiger Stadium.

Ole Miss 42, Southeastern Louisiana 0: You could accuse me of including this game just to pad my stats. Or, you could salute me for being a Southeastern Conference completist to give all the teams in the league I cover their just due.

Southern Miss 27, Virginia 16: Another week, and another loss for my alma mater. The Cavaliers' football program has become one big, steaming batch of fail.

Boise State 41, Fresno State 31: The WAC and Mountain West Conferences certainly have evolved into a couple of entertaining football leagues, haven't they? This is the best chance a WAC team will have to unseat the Broncos and spoil their attempt to be a BCS spoiler. I don't think it happens.

BYU 24, Florida State 14: The Cougars make a statement to the pollsters by beating the Seminoles. This would mean more if BYU did it in Tallahassee, but it's still going to send an impressive message. If Florida and Southern Cal stumble, would a BYU-Boise State national championship game be so farfetched?

Ohio State 34, Toledo 31: Upset Alert! Toledo puts a major scare into the Buckeyes one week after OSU's letdown against Southern Cal.

Texas 41, Texas Tech 21: Graham Harrell is not walking through that door, Red Raiders fans.

Last Week: 13-2
2009 Season: 22-8

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