LONDON - The United States’ dominance of the global defence sectors is likely to be eroded over the coming decade as both Russia and China encroach on formerly assured markets, according to the latest Jane’s Industry Quarterly study: “Crossing Borders: International Defence Industrial Relationships – a Global Perspective.”
Furthermore, the rise of emerging defence equipment exporters – from South Korea and Australia to Pakistan and India – will help shape the world markets during the years to 2020 and challenge the established producers from the West.
IHS Jane’s has identified Southeast Asia, the Gulf states and South America as the principal new frontiers where United States firms and those of China and Russia, in particular, are likely to find themselves competing head to head for arms orders over the coming ten years. The level of direct competition between East and West will be far greater than in previous decades.
Guy Anderson, editor and lead analyst of Jane’s Industry Quarterly explained: “The defence trade relationships of the past two decades were very much shaped along Cold War lines. Those certainties are evaporating. Just as the global security environment is becoming increasingly fluid, so too will patterns of international military sales.
“The aggressive military export strategies of Russia, and China to a lesser extent, are likely to pose significant challenges for Western military producers.”
Anderson added: “Russia increased its share of the world market over the last decade through a combination of keen pricing and flexibility, with a willingness to use sovereign debt forgiveness; counter trade; and technology transfer. Most importantly, there is a willingness to use arms sales as a bargaining chip to secure access to energy fields around the world.
“Western firms, on the other hand, will in many cases find themselves hampered by the presence of arms embargoes; technology and equipment export regulations; and the need to align the strategic objectives of national governments with the wishes of shareholders,” concluded Anderson.
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