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According to ETSU Economics professor Steb Hipple, "the economic recovery in the Tri-Cities will probably lag the national upturn, just as local business conditions lagged the initial part of the recession in 2008. With a springtime recovery in the national economy, the region can anticipate improving business conditions with the arrival of summer."
That was a conclusion of Hipple's analysis of the Fourth Quarter adjusted labor market for the Tri-Cities.
The analysis of the adjusted data points out just how much the "Great Recession continued squeezing the area jobs sector during the Fourth Quarter of 2009."
Area employment - the number of people working - fell 4.5% to 221,716 - a loss of over 10,300 jobs compared to the same period in 2008.
Unemployment increased by 51% to 22,657 on a year-to-year basis – a jump of 7,700 in the jobless numbers.
The difference in job losses and unemployment represents over 2500 discouraged workers who have given up looking for work and have dropped out of the labor force.
The unemployment rate for the Tri-Cities area is now 9.3%, compared to only 6.1% a year ago. Three of the seven metro counties saw double-digit unemployment rates over the fall months.
Job growth occurred in government, and education and health services during the quarter.
The major employment declines were concentrated in the goods producing sector, led by durable manufacturing, nondurable manufacturing, and construction. Smaller job losses occurred in wholesale trade, information, retail trade, transport & utilities, finance, leisure & hospitality, and other services. Employment was unchanged in the small mining sector.
According to Hipple's report, all of the three cities reflected the severity of the ongoing recession.
During the October to December quarter, employment declined 5.1% in Kingsport, 5.0% in Bristol, and 3.7% in Johnson City.
Unemployment increases were in the range of 47% to 59%. The jobless rate was 9.2% in Bristol and Kingsport, and 9.1% in Johnson City. The city rates were slightly below the regional rate of 9.3% and the national rate of 9.5%.
In the analysis portion of the report Hipple writes, "the economy does seem poised for a turnaround in labor market conditions. (Economists call this the “trough” in the business cycle.) At some point, the increasing level of production will require business firms to begin to add workers. Most analysts expect employment levels to begin to rise in the spring months.
"As a reminder, the economic indicator to watch is payroll employment. The labor market statistic that gets the most attention is the national unemployment rate, but this figure can be misleading. The January unemployment rate dropped below 10 percent, but this was due to only to the fact that the labor force was shrinking as discouraged workers gave up searching for non-existent jobs. When payroll employment begins to increase, then we can finally say that the recession is behind us." Hipple's complete report and data tables can be found by CLICKING HERE.
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Oliver: I think that he's been around for at least 1 1/2 years. He just popped up to wail on Peter for some reason.
In closing Mr Stevenson, I think you have the right idea. Basically to me what I hear you saying is if the government just raised the minimum wage to $25 per hour, everyone and everything would be good for everyone, cause those evil greedy businesses would have to be fair to everyone.
PS They should require us all to have to hire a neigborhood kid to mow our yards and we should have to pay them at least $100. Why? Because we should not be greedy either and do the right thing for the kids.
I forgot to mention Mr Stevenson, that the reason the government can pay more for employees, is because its income to pay its employees does not come from providing a service or goods efficiently. It comes from charging its workers more from the amount they make (in taxes) so it can pay its employees more. So there you have it. It charges those working and being productive so it can pay its government employees more so they can also pay back more in taxes so they can continue to hire more government employees. Its a great plan. Don't believe me? Ask Russia
Mr Stevenson, since you feel like a business purpose and priorty is to pay its employees well, would you open a business and let me work for you? I know you don't own one because of your comments, but you need to, because you would be sure and pay your employees a great income, even it your business was not bringing in enough to do so, cause it is the right thing.
Also, my son mows yards and needs money to go to school. Would you hire him to mow your yard and because I am sure by your comments that you would not pay him the measly amount most people pay. You would do the right thing and pay more. By the way, tell us how much you pay to have your yard mowed. Please do not tell me you mow your own yard, because I would be so disappointed in you, because there are people that need that money that you should be paying someone to mow your yard. You know, the right thing to do.
Bottom line is small business will prevail. Those government jobs that pay more are not sustainable. Eventually they will either have to be exterminated or the country goes bankrupt.
You speak as any Tom, Dick and Harry can go out there and run a successful business, They Can't. You speak as if it's all about money, I left a job making an extremely healthy salary with a plethora of benefits. Why, because money is not everything. 1) If my daughter has a soccer game, I'm not going to ask someone if I can go, I am going. 2) When I started my business the American Dream still existed and I wanted a challenge for myself not doing what I was told to do to earn a check.
The argument over government and private jobs is moronic. If your that money hungry I feel sorry for you. If you could honestly take pride in saying you work for the united states government, Other than being a soldier in our military, I feel sorry for you. I would hang my head in shame to know that I was helping to pilfer from my neighbors.
Colin McCrea, rest his soul once said something that has stuck with me for years. "You are here for a good time, Not a long time so don't take life to serious because you will never get out alive"
" It is also worth mentioning that about 3/4 of small businesses are one person firms that don't employ anyone."
Love to know the failure rate, too.
This is largely the result of people becoming self-employed after being laid off from a good job and being unable to find a similar PAYING job. Why on earth would anyone take a pay cut to work for someone else, making less for the privilege of building that someone else's equity, when they can start a one-person firm and hopefully build something that creates their own equity, something they own 100%. Initially, they may experience the same pay cut or cash flow crunch. But that cut, hopefully temporary, ultimately builds their own equity, not someone else's.
This is the primary path people take after leaving a company with the pay scale of an Eastman. Why would someone leave Eastman on a layoff and go to work for Jay, making 75% of their Eastman wages, building Jay's equity, when they can start a business and ultimately build 100% of their own equity.
And if that doesn't work out, well, they go and train to become a nurse, joining the government payroll.
Jane,
Show a modicum of swiftness and stay with the conversation, and not fixate on 12 replies ago.
Ever since Reagan started busting the unions, Clinton passed NAFTA, and Bush put big government conservatism on the map when he created the whole Homeland Security bureaucracy, your precious small business arena has not been the most sexiest proposition in town (unlike you, of course) for the working man. Obama is the rookie, honey. He is the junior member of this 30-year plan to expand government. He only bats clean-up.
As to WHY the small business arena is no longer sexy, well, that what we batted back and forth on the last dozen replies.
Actually, small businesses employ around 50% of private sector employees. That's not counting government jobs.
To be fair, 65% of new jobs over the past 15 years have been created by small businesses. It is also worth mentioning that about 3/4 of small businesses are one person firms that don't employ anyone.
Mr. Stevenson, what stats pray tell? The stats where the Obammunists are moving all the jobs to government so they can control the entire country? I hate to tell you this, but without small business (that employs 65% of the country), you have NOTHING. Where are all these people in the government going to buy their groceries, get their gas, clothing, etc... when all the businesses are closed? Do you think you are going to force us to continue to stay in business or throw us in labor camps?
Try to show a modicum of common sense please.
""But is the answer inflating the role of the Federal Gov't to astronomical size, merely because it's the only thing that cannot be shipped overseas?"
No, its not. Never said it was."
It's not difficult to infer, however. Given the option of a 45K paycheck or a 75K Federal paycheck (which most people would choose); how will that NOT inflate Gov't size/role larger than it is now? Unless, those people are merely receiving a 75K paycheck without being employed by the Gov't... either way, it's unsustainable.
"NAFTA's ill effects to a much later date"
--I'd argue that the day of reckoning is much closer than that.
And thus ends today's episode of the Peter and CK show. I've got to study for a midterm exam.
"But is the answer inflating the role of the Federal Gov't to astronomical size, merely because it's the only thing that cannot be shipped overseas?"
No, its not. Never said it was.
But the ability of the government to print money, borrow money, and raise salaries has deferred that national conversation on NAFTA's ill effects to a much later date, until well AFTER most business owners have raked it in on the labor cost differential and cashed out. When the country busts, they will be on the beach.
"It [private companies] used to compete for talent. It used to be able to pay more. So whats the excuse now?"
--Increasing governmental encroachment into private industry? --The ability to give itself a monopoly and take the competitive aspect from private industry?
--The ability of the Government to tap into the wallets of the taxpayer (involuntarily) to fund its excursions, while private businesses are forced to stick with the supply/demand model and voluntary association with its customers?
--The ability of government to exceed its budget and be center-of-the-earth-deep in debt, and *still* be viable?
I'm not sure what you're finding "fair" about that particular process.
"The private sector has changed too, offering less to employees, making workers compete with dirt poor countries at the same time the top 10% of the country have grown their wealth astronomically. You don't think part of the talent exodus from the private sector is self-inflicted?"
Short answer: Yes. Also- the Gov't was more than complicit in the process with it's passage of NAFTA. But is the answer inflating the role of the Federal Gov't to astronomical size, merely because it's the only thing that cannot be shipped overseas?
"The Private sector can't compete with the Government, because the playing field isn't anywhere near level for competition. You know it."
It used to compete for talent. It used to be able to pay more. So whats the excuse now?
Government didn't always have the higher salaries. Yet government has ALWAYS been those things in your list. So regardless of your list, the private sector was able to compete for talent and pay more.
So what has changed?
The government? With 2 tax cuts in 2 decades, how has it kept more of the business owner's money?
The private sector has changed too, offering less to employees, making workers compete with dirt poor countries at the same time the top 10% of the country have grown their wealth astronomically. You don't think part of the talent exodus from the private sector is self-inflicted?
"When a person has a $45,000 offer in one hand, and a $75,000 offer in the other hand, do you think your list alters their choice?
And until something alters their choice, the process of talent and employment numbers shifting away from the private sector will continue."
So, it's the reverse of ol' Reaganomics... more like "Trickle-Up Economy". The only problem with that is the system is NOT self-sustaining. If it were, all we would have to do is increase our taxes, get Fed jobs, and enjoy our pay increases in perpetuity; laws of economics be damned.
There is a theoretical upper limit to how large a government can be, before it collapses upon itself. I honestly believe that our Fed system is closely approaching that limit- several of the largest entitlement programs are nearing insolvency and there's only so much blood you can squeeze from a rock (or a taxpayer). The size of Federal Gov't is increasing (along with your theoretical paycheck analogy vs. private businesses) but it can't go on forever.
The blog you referenced: Fed employees are enjoying a 3% pay raise, in spite of the current economic conditions. They're enjoying substantially higher medians in pay than the private sector. They're guaranteed cadillac healthcare plans and pensions; ALL in spite of the current economy. It simply isn't sustainable.
A fool would pass up the 75K job for the 45K job- but only a fool would opt to stay on the bottom of the ponzi scheme. The only problem: The Laws of Economics will skull-rape our artificially-inflated and Federal-leaning economy. It *WILL* crash and burn.
Peter: weren't you the one who harped against the Bankers and the Elderly who pillaged the future of the country so they could "get theirs" at everyone elses expense? How is this not like that?
"There isn't a privately-owned business on the planet:
--That can seize a portion of your income (before you even see it) and take it, voluntarily or not.
(...snip..)
--that can enforce a "contract" with everyone, without a single escape clause and no recompensation for dissatisfaction of services."
When a person has a $45,000 offer in one hand, and a $75,000 offer in the other hand, do you think your list alters their choice?
And until something alters their choice, the process of talent and employment numbers shifting away from the private sector will continue.
"In my eyes the business is offering a job at a certain wage but someone must accept that job. So they are equally responsible if that job is a sh**ty low wage job to them."
I agree with you there. They sign on anyway because they are trapped by an oppressive mortgage and tapped out credit cards. They just had to have that 3,000 sq foot house instead of a 1,200 sq foot one, and they just had to buy that Lexus over a Chevy. They enslave themselves. It seems strange that we didn't have all this excess in our lives when we had higher private sector wages.
"I believe the tax code needs a complete and basic overhaul."
I'm 120% with you on this, too.
I just remember back in the 70s when we had a steel industry and all that, and government wages were lower than the private sector. Something has reversed all that.
Part of it is we now have global competition in manufacturing that we didn't have then. Remember all those people who celebrated NAFTA and told us having a WalMart with lower prices would be good for the American family? Hell, Walmart still runs that "how much a family saves" theme in their TV commercials today. But they never told us about this side-effect. And its a whopper of one. Did they really think the average worker with fixed mortgage costs would just suck it up and tolerate lower wages in the private sector, or go look look elsewhere in government or healthcare fields?
Instead of always complaining about government, COMPETE with it. If you can.
Sorry, My business is fiscally responsible, I cannot compete with a business that is drastically fiscally irresponsible. If I can't pay back money I borrow in 90 days, I don't borrow it. Can't say that about Uncle Sam.
A couple of months ago my 4 year old daughter wanted a toy while we were out and I told here we didn't have the money for that right now. She said "yes you do get it out of that money machine". I told my wife my daughter sounds like the U.S. government. She now has a chore sheet on the frig with 5 items on it she gets a 1.00 per chore per week as long as she gets a star each day for each thing. The crazy thing is when we started this chore sheet we got a piggy bank to go with it and she always puts her dollars in there. When we are out and she asks for a toy, I tell her to take it out of her bank and we can get it next time, Every time I say this she says "I don't want to take it till the piggies belly is full" I said to her last week what happens when piggies belly gets full. She said "I guess we are gonna have to get more piggies".
Point of my story is maybe the government needs a chore sheet and a piggy bank.
If the government continues on the road they are on they will be the ones bankrupt. It's already in the back of my mind to sell it all and pack it up and head on out. The private sector will be the ones that will be expected to pay. When that expectation breaches 40% of my income I am done. I'm not gonna give up, But there are a lot of attractive places to live in the world that the government is less invasive.
"Instead of always complaining about government, COMPETE with it. If you can."
You can't- and you know it, Peter.
There isn't a privately-owned business on the planet:
--That can seize a portion of your income (before you even see it) and take it, voluntarily or not.
--They cannot force you to consume their services (even if they're not needed or given to someone else) by merely being a citizen of the U.S.
--They cannot use the police powers of the State to seize whats your's, at the point of a gun.
--If the budget isn't met, they can't fire up the printing presses and somehow escape the Laws of Economics.
--that can enforce a "contract" with everyone, without a single escape clause and no recompensation for dissatisfaction of services.
The Private sector can't compete with the Government, because the playing field isn't anywhere near level for competition. You know it.
In short, you're either a troll or a blithering retard.
Thanks for the explanation Peter, and I apologize for jumping the gun. When I hear Business' don't create real jobs and government employment being the nice ride nowadays it gets me boiling. The second part is the pathetic part that people are to busy at looking for the easy ride instead of earning their way.
On the other, While there are plenty of bad business owners and practices out there. I don't see a business as the creator of sh**ty low wage jobs. A person ultimately has to take that position, In my eyes the business is offering a job at a certain wage but someone must accept that job. So they are equally responsible if that job is a sh**ty low wage job to them. Then they shouldn't accept the job. That same job may be the best job in the world to someone else out there.
I can tell you it cost a fortune to run a business. I believe in a real flat tax, I believe the tax code needs a complete and basic overhaul. If we had a real flat tax that same employee that I pay 36,000.00 to, I could pay 40,000.00.
Their are a whole lot of people to blame for those Sh**tty Low wage jobs you speak of starting with the Government to Greedy owners to Employees that either accept less than they are worth or take a job with no care for the job, Just the check.
If the government would get out of the job creation business and pay for the basic needs of the nation instead of taxing the nation to death for entitlement after entitlement. Then we could actually get to creating jobs.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/05/12/business/econwatch/entry5007862.shtml
Average salary in private industry is $45000 vs. the average salary of the government worker of $75000
Instead of always complaining about government, COMPETE with it. If you can.
Jay, I'm not endorsing working for government or any other socialist or democrat ideal. I'm just pointing out the reasons behind the current flood of people running away from private sector employment. When working in the private sector increasingly sucks, less people go there. Its not an entitlement or welfare mindset, but rather good ole free market principles of better pay, better benefits and all that at work. You can't be part of the shi*hole option and expect people to gravitate to you.
Bless you for keeping 16 of your 18 employees who haven't tasted life elsewhere happy right here. You da man!
Peter you are part of the problem. This entitlement society that it seems expects their government to carry them through life. I own my own business and have 18 employees that will gladly tell you that you sir are dead wrong. 2 of my employees have college educations, That is all. we are a service industry business and offer full benefits, Health, Retirement, even a gym membership and my payroll was over 800,000.00 for 2009 and my lowest paid employee was paid a little over 36,000.00.
So continue on with your Democratic or socialistic or whatever it is philosophy of my government will save me ways and no one is worthy of building this nation except for my government. In the meantime I will keep providing those that want to earn it on there own a way to do that and we will continue pay for you and all of your worthless projects.
I hate that you are so miserable in life but I've got 18 wonderful employees who respect me and I them and they will no doubt let you know that your idea of sh*tty job creation from business is just that sh**ty talk from someone miserable in life.
Business is what will again save this country, I plan on hiring 4 to 6 employees in April if you are that miserable in life and can handle hard work and hard hours. I challenge you to come on down, Although I doubt you'd make it through a day.
Businesses don't create real jobs, they create sh*tty low wage jobs. Have been, well, since Reagan.
Why do you think everybody's rushing towards government employment. That's the nice ride nowadays.
Sorry, bub, but if you are a business owner you're not the gem you think you are. And that stats prove that.